Path 1
Hold Bitcoin
—
cash needed today
MSTR Price—
Bitcoin—
CoinGecko at the close
Call
—
Implied Volatility
—
How much do you need today to make $10,000,000?
Three ways to reverse-engineer the goal if MSTR and Bitcoin reach your targets. Change any assumption below — every number updates instantly.
At the Nov 20, 2024 MSTR top, the Mar 2025 $300, $400 and $500 calls were priced at 159%, 169% and 161% IV. That was up from about 90–105% before the run.
Path 2
Hold MSTR shares
—
cash needed today
Path 3
MSTR calls
—
cash needed today
Capital required, side by side
Every strike for
Lower strikes and later expirations cost more per contract but pay off sooner. Tap a row to use it for Path 3.
| Strike | Price | Cost / contract | Value at target | Multiple | Break-even | Contracts | Cash needed |
|---|
Build a ladder
Buy the same number of contracts at each rung of one expiration. We find how many per rung reach your goal.
What if MSTR lands somewhere else?
Value of the Path 3 position at expiration for a range of MSTR prices.
| MSTR at expiration | Position value | Profit / loss | vs. goal |
|---|
How the math works
- Bitcoin / MSTR shares: profit per unit = target − today's price. Units needed = goal ÷ profit per unit. Cash needed = units × today's price.
- Calls: each contract covers 100 shares. Value at target = (MSTR target − strike) × 100. Profit per contract = value − premium × 100. Contracts = goal ÷ profit per contract, rounded up. Cash needed = contracts × premium × 100.
- IV spike (optional): with the toggle on, each call is valued on your sell date using the Black-Scholes model at the implied volatility you choose (4.5% interest rate, no dividends). This adds time value on top of intrinsic value. That extra only exists if you sell before expiration, and IV can drop quickly once a rally stalls.
- With the toggle off, option values are intrinsic value at expiration only. Neither mode includes taxes or commissions.
- Option prices come from the CBOE delayed feed and are refreshed once each trading day after the 4:00 pm ET close. Bitcoin is from CoinGecko at the same time.